The often-asked question of whether it’s a buyer’s or a seller’s market is a little difficult to answer at the moment. With the April stamp duty rises now in place, the sector is watching intently to see how buyers and sellers react to the increased costs. Will we see deals not concluded in time grind to a halt? Will there be a hiatus while everyone decides what the new normal will be? Or will buyers and sellers simply absorb the rise and get on with their moves?
A buyer’s market?
Most experts believe 2025 started as a buyer’s market and will continue to be so. At the start of the year, the market shifted to one of cautious optimism as buyers flocked to do deals before the stamp duty deadline. The rise in interest wasn’t surprising, having been building in earnest since the October budget revelation of changing stamp duty thresholds, as well as the long-awaited first base rate cuts in 2024.
Sellers who had hesitated to list their properties realised the opportunity to sell was finally here. That widened the pool of properties for buyers, giving them more chance to secure the property they wanted while still maintaining sufficient negotiating power to achieve the price they desired.
As a result, the start of 2025 saw the number of available properties for sale at its highest in a decade. That trend has continued according to Rightmove’s March House Price Index. Buyers were also buoyed by the first base rate cut of 2025 in February.
A seller’s dream?
The rush of buyer interest has been beneficial for sellers, too, who have had more confidence to sell and who wanted to take advantage of the stamp duty stampede of buyers. They have also benefited from house prices continuing to increase with Rightmove predicting that house prices will rise by up to 4% over 2025. It means that when they are managing to sell they are still getting more money for their property.
What next?
So what’s next? In March there was a log jam of 575,000 moves stuck in the legal completion process as buyers tried to beat the stamp duty deadline, according to Rightmove. The number of sales agreed was also high – up 9% compared to the same time last year. The number of new sellers, meanwhile, was 8% ahead of last year. On paper, it looks encouraging for both parties.
What impact the stamp duty rise will have will largely depend on mortgage rates continuing to fall, which itself will depend on what happens with further interest rate cuts. This isn’t clear. Despite the base rate cuts that have already taken place since 2024 mortgage rates are still only marginally lower than they were this time last year.
In addition, the government’s promised improvements to the economy haven’t materialised yet and UK economic growth is also now threatened by the impact of National Insurance rises for businesses as well as Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs which have rocked stock markets and created international uncertainty. That said, some forecasters are now predicting three further interest rates cuts this year as a result.
Buyers are unlikely to retreat completely. The increased stamp duty costs can be absorbed into mortgages but it will make buyers rethink budgets and affordability. For sellers, realistic pricing will be key.
For more information on how we can assist you on your sales journey, please contact one of our branches in Essex, London or Hertfordshire today. We also offer a free and instant online valuation to give you an idea of how much your home could be worth on the current market.
